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Bitcoin's price may be due for one more pullback in the coming weeks and that could be a good opportunity to buy more of the cryptocurrency before its next leg up, according to Wolfe Research. "[Bitcoin] now sits within reach of having retraced 50% of the decline off its highs," Ginsberg wrote in a note last week. However … near term price action may provide for one more buying opportunity before continuing higher." BTC.CM= 1Y mountain Bitcoin (BTC) now has retraced nearly 50% of the decline off its 2021 all-time high. "We would use it as a buying opportunity as the next move higher likely takes price above $40,000."
Persons: bitcoin, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, BTC, Metrics Locations: U.S
Wall Street is set to wrap up a strong month next week as stocks gun for new highs heading into year end. The Nasdaq Composite is on pace to close out the month with a double-digit advance, up 10%. In contrast to September and October, which are typically weak periods for stocks, the seasonal patterns are now in favor of equities. This week, LPL Financial's Adam Turnquist pointed out that more than half, or 55%, of S & P 500 stocks closed above their 200-day moving average. It's set to show a rise of 0.2%, down from the 0.7% rise in the prior month, according to FactSet consensus estimates.
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Sam Stovall, That's, CFRA's Stovall, What's, LPL, Adam Turnquist, Turnquist, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Morningstar's Dave Sekera, Sekera, Morningstar's Sekera, Salesforce, Gartner Organizations: Nasdaq, Bank, Treasury, Costco Wholesale, Kroger, New, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Intuit, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI, PMI, Manufacturing, Dominion Energy, Cboe, Cardinal Health Locations: Chicago
Altcoins were in rally mode this week after lagging bitcoin in its recent climb to new 2023 highs. Bitcoin and ether have been separate from this trend recently, with more investors appearing to treat them as a safety trade compared to smaller, riskier altcoins. "Historically we've seen bitcoin rally, then Ethereum, then alts, and that pattern seems to be repeating as this bull market heats up," he said. "We see as a more likely scenario existing capital shifting from existing bitcoin products such as the Grayscale bitcoin trust, bitcoin futures ETFs and publicly listed bitcoin mining companies, into the newly-approved spot bitcoin ETFs," he said. He also said that bitcoin ETFs already exist in Canada and Europe but haven't garnered much interest from investors since their inception.
Persons: Altcoins, bitcoin, Polygon's, Bitcoin, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, altcoins, – it's, It's, Ryan Rasmussen, Mike Novogratz, JPMorgan's Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, haven't, Panigirtzoglou, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Solana, ADA, ETH, Wolfe Research, Treasury, Bitwise Asset Management, Galaxy Digital, JPMorgan Locations: Canada, Europe
The bitcoin price chart just flashed a bullish signal that typically heralds a big rally is on the horizon. On Monday, the cryptocurrency formed a "golden cross," a pattern that's drawn when the 50-day moving average crosses through, and above, an ascending 200-day moving average. "Every big price move starts with a positive cross, but not every positive cross leads to a big move," he told CNBC. However, the last "golden cross" with an ascending 200-day moving average took place Feb. 11, according to Coin Metrics. The slope of the 200-day moving average should continue to point higher as long as the breakout above the second-quarter peaks hold, Wald said.
Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, Ari Wald, Oppenheimer, Jerome Powell's, bitcoin, Wald, , Nick Wells Organizations: Traders, Wolfe Research, CNBC, Metrics, Investors
High interest rates have not been bitcoin's friend in the past, and the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield recently reaching new generational highs comes at an especially inconvenient time for the cryptocurrency. "We continue to see high yields as a negative for bitcoin and in particular crypto more broadly," said Needham analyst John Todaro. The central bank chief also left the door open for higher interest rates , saying he doesn't think levels are currently too high. In the past, high yields have put pressure on crypto, giving investors fewer reasons to bet on high-risk assets such as bitcoin in the face of high yield, low risk assets like government bonds. Callie Cox, an analyst at the investment company eToro, said bitcoin could actually continue to do well — partly as a result of high interest rates.
Persons: it's, Needham, John Todaro, Jerome Powell, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Callie Cox, bitcoin, What's, Crypto, Cox Organizations: Treasury, Wolfe Research
US10Y 5D mountain 10-year yield this week The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield briefly reached the 5% milestone late Thursday, raising questions of how long it will stay elevated and what the effect will be on stocks. "This is the last leg of the upmove" from the 2020 low, when 10-year yields touched 0.31%, he said. Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton also pinned 5.25% as the next resistance level for the 10-year bond yield. Meanwhile, Piper Sandler's chief market technician Craig Robinson also said the 10-year yield is due for a pullback. Ciana, on the other hand, estimates the 10-year yield likely staying above 5% for a while.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Paul Ciana, Elliott, Ciana, Katie Stockton, Piper, Craig Robinson, Robinson Organizations: Treasury, Atlanta, RBC, Wolfe Research, Bank of America Locations: Stockton
Major earnings reports and economic data will be in focus next week as investors seek clarity on how the Federal Reserve will proceed from here. But next week will bring the lion's share of results including reports from mega-cap darlings Alphabet, Amazon , Meta Platforms and Microsoft . While the S & P 500 is higher by 10% in 2023, the equal-weighted index is down slightly. Of note, Tesla shares sank more than 9% on Thursday following a pessimistic economic outlook from CEO Elon Musk during the company's earnings call. Its the S & P 500's first weekly loss in three weeks.
Persons: bode, Elon Musk, We're, Sam Stovall, it's, Raphael Bostic, Ed Clissold, Ned Davis, Clissold, Katie Stockton, Rob Ginsberg, I'm, CFRA's Stovall, Stovall, Sherwin, Williams, Kimberly, Hess, Raymond James Financial, Keurig Dr Pepper, Northrop, Willis Towers Watson, Stanley Black, Rowe Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Microsoft, Investors, CFRA, Dow Jones, Treasury, Fed, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Wolfe Research, Chicago, P, PMI, P Global PMI Manufacturing, P Global PMI Services, Richmond Fed, Visa, Texas Instruments, General Electric, NextEra Energy, Raytheon Technologies, Dow, Inc, General Motors, Halliburton, Coca, Corning, Hilton Worldwide, General Dynamics, Dominion Freight, Mobile US, Boeing, Raymond, Technology, Whirlpool, International Business Machines, O'Reilly, Honeywell, Northrop Grumman, Mastercard, Amazon, Royal Caribbean Group, Tractor Supply, United Parcel Service, Hasbro, Southwest Airlines, Comcast, Hershey, Intel, L3Harris Technologies, Ford Motor, Energy, Chevron, Decker, Exxon Mobil, Colgate, Palmolive Locations: U.S, Atlanta, AbbVie
Things seem to have taken a turn lower in the crypto market, but bitcoin offers a glimmer of hope and Wolfe Research is defending its long view of the asset. The crypto market continues to struggle from low volume and liquidity that have dragged on for most of the year. "That changed this week with Monday seeing over $105 million in crypto liquidations, and the equal weight crypto index we track breaking down in turn," Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg said in a note Wednesday. On top of that, Treasury yields remain high amid stubbornly high inflation and uncertainty around the Israel-Hamas war. Crypto stocks are also trading down, but may be finding support now, according to Wolfe.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Bitcoin, bitcoin, it's, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, BTC, ETF Locations: bitcoin, Israel
The market recovery from last week's lows could be an indication that a market bottom is in place, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors. "While some might see this as 'jumping the gun,' I do feel like there's a good likelihood that Equity market lows could be in place after the constructive bounce in recent days," wrote Mark Newton, the firm's head of technical strategy. Newton pointed to several reasons for this, including: Strong tech returns relative to the S & P 500 . Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier also noted that the fourth quarter is usually a good one for the S & P 500, increasing the likelihood of the broader market index doing well going forward. Going forward, the next test for the S & P 500 comes near the 4,400 to 4,450 range, as investors work their way through oversold conditions, according to Rob Ginsberg of Wolfe Research.
Persons: Mark Newton, Newton, . Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Rob Ginsberg, Wolfe, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Fundstrat Global Advisors, . Bank of America's, Wolfe Research
Many investors expect that could be the capitulation event equities need to bottom out before rebounding. "If you get down to five and a quarter all hell's gonna break loose," Rob Ginsberg, managing director at Wolfe Research. The yield on the 10-year Treasury has spiked sharply to about 4.8% this week, about 1 whole percentage point above where it was in mid-July at around 3.7%. In fact, it won't take much for the positive narrative to start to take hold in markets, Hogan said. Hogan anticipates the S & P 500 could rise to 4,800 by year end, about 13% above where it is currently.
Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Fitch, Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon, Wolfe Research's Ginsberg, Ginsberg doesn't, You'll, Ginsberg, Riley Financial's Art Hogan, they'll, Read, Hogan, Kevin McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Katie Stockton, Bank of America's Stephen Suttmeier, Jeffrey Hirsch, I'm, Hirsch Organizations: Dow Jones, Treasury, Wolfe Research, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, CNBC Pro's, Supply, Bank of America's Locations: Saudi Arabia
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has hit its highest level in 16 years, but a host of economists and money managers and investors expect it can go still further. If the 10-year yield broke out convincingly above 5.25%, Ginsberg said it could next move above 7% — although he'd be "shocked" to see yields that high. He assumes that even a 10-year yield above 5% will cause something to go wrong in one corner of the market or the economy. "It's gonna be a challenging environment for investors, for stock investors," Ginsberg said. However, he expects the 10-year yield could stabilize around 4.5% and 5%.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, We're, Russell, Katie Stockton, Stockton, Wolfe Research's Ginsberg, Ray Dalio, Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Yardeni, Research, Apple, Nvidia, U.S ., Bridgewater Associates Locations: Stockton
In the final quarter of the year, bitcoin is likely to see continued chop and although there's room for some upside, it may be limited. Despite this, it remains on pace for an 11% decline in the third quarter, historically a weaker quarter for the cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, holding a non-yielding asset like gold or bitcoin could become "less interesting" as rates go higher, Amberdata's Magadini said. There's a significant crowd on both sides, Cox said – "that's why bitcoin is up 60% in a year when the Fed has hiked interest rates so aggressively." The answer to that depends on interest rates, which will probably stay high."
Persons: Bitcoin, bitcoin, Greg Magadini, Rob Ginsberg, wouldn't, haven't, Callie Cox, That's, Amberdata's Magadini, Cox Organizations: SEC, , Wolfe Research, Fed
Bitcoin has long perplexed investors with its ability to act as both a store of value and a high risk asset, but Wolfe Research says it's worth owning either way and to lean into the nuance. "A question we have often asked is whether BTC should be treated more like a risk asset or a storage of value such as Gold. "Bitcoin is highly correlated to small caps, a risk asset. That said however, bitcoin only rallied this spring thanks to the banking scare, which saw investors flee to the 'safety' of the coin," he added. Though bitcoin was initially designed to be digital cash and an alternative financial system, it spent much of 2022 trading like a speculative asset.
Persons: Bitcoin, Wolfe, It's, Rob Ginsberg, bitcoin, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: BTC, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank Locations: Silicon, U.S
The Federal Reserve's hold on the bitcoin price may be back in play following the central bank's latest policy update. However, unlike the March and June rallies that followed oversold conditions, bitcoin has been trading sideways since its last major drop . "That's when the Fed pivots and that's when you see a violent rotation back into risk." If bitcoin breaks above $28,000, it could continue to as high as $32,000 in the short term, Ginsberg said. If bitcoin takes out the $25,000 support level, it could fall further still to between $20,000 and $21,000, according to Ginsberg.
Persons: bitcoin, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, it's Organizations: Wolfe Research, CNBC, Federal Reserve
Whether that's just simply relative PE or our more complicated relative valuation model," DeSanctis said. Still, he added that small caps have struggled to escape the headwinds from the regional banking crisis earlier in the year. How to play small caps There's one sector both Wolfe's Ginsberg and DeSanctis like when it comes to small caps: energy. He added that small caps in the cyclicals market have traded under 13 times earnings — and better than secular growth names. "I think a lot of stuff has already been priced into small cap stocks," said DeSanctis.
Persons: Russell, BTIG, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, We're, Jefferies, Steven DeSanctis, that's, DeSanctis, Wolfe's Ginsberg, Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, Wolfe Research, Energy
Headwinds are piling up for the market heading into the final week of the month, as September lives up to its reputation as a horrible month for Wall Street. Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg pointed out in a note this week that the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) doesn't suggest much fear in markets. "We have a potential shutdown in Washington, as well as the UAW strike, which could potentially create some volatility in jobs data in particular." But investors heading into the final trading week of September will likely see a continuation of those losses, if history is any indication. "We could see the market experience additional weakness over the next several weeks," said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, VIX, Amy Wu Silverman, Aditya Bhave, Shannon Saccocia, Saccocia, there's, RBC's Wu Silverman, what's, Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Sam Stovall, Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox Organizations: Wall, Dow Jones, Reserve, Bank of America U.S, UAW, CFRA, Costco Wholesale, Nike, Chicago, Dallas Fed, New, Richmond Fed, Costco, Micron, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, BEA, Auto, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: Washington, Detroit, . Kansas, Chicago, Michigan
Bitcoin's price this week is near a familiar and key support level, but its latest stop there is a little more worrying than previous ones this year, according to Wolfe Research. "With support in this area on dual fronts, it makes sense that price would hold and consolidate in this region. "Longer term momentum is starting to break in bitcoin," he added. Short term price action is never our worry, it's when longer term trends start to break, that we want to take notice and pivot accordingly." "As the retail investor comes under pressure and liquidity is drained, our concerns will only grow for crypto prices," Ginsberg added.
Persons: bitcoin, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Bitcoin's, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Nick Wells Organizations: Wolfe Research Locations: bitcoin
The stock market may be losing one of its leaders heading into the release of key inflation reports next week that could clarify the path of future monetary policy. Apple weakness However, even after Apple's drop this week, some investors expect to see further declines in Apple because of deteriorating stock price momentum. A hotter-than-expected price report will likely add to investor concern over sticky inflation and tighter monetary policy, weighing on equities. Monday Sept. 11 Earnings: Oracle Tuesday Sept. 12 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (August) Wednesday Sept. 13 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (August) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (09/09) 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (August) 8:30 a.m. Retail Sales (August) 10 a.m. Business Inventories (July) Earnings: Lennar , Adobe , Copart Friday Sept. 15 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Rob Ginsberg, Tim Cook, selloff, Wolfe Research's Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Dan Niles, Satori, Wolfe's Ginsberg, Alex McGrath, FactSet, isn't, Price, , Michael Bloom, Gabriel Cortes Organizations: Apple, Wolfe Research, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Tech, Satori Fund, U.S . West Texas, ICE Brent, Federal Reserve, Wealth, Traders, United Auto Workers, UAW, Big Three, General Motors, Ford Motor, Treasury Budget, Retail, Adobe, Price, Index, Manufacturing Locations: China, Apple, U.S, @CL, Michigan
Altcoin trading is limping along, despite initially getting a boost from a key July court ruling that gave Ripple a partial victory over the Securities and Exchange Commission. However, this is not a strong enough narrative to take over the broader theme of deterioration in crypto market structure, said Park added. "This has serious implications for altcoin trading, as the shift in focus to alternatives like FDUSD or TUSD has created a bottleneck for pairs trading that is often how altcoin liquidity is gauged and accessed," he added. "At its peak, there were over 300 BUSD trading pairs and the number is steadily decreasing as BUSD is ceasing its operations." Wolfe Research's Rob Ginsberg noted this week that weak price action and low trading volume largely define the trading of altcoins in the current market.
Persons: , Jeff Park, Glassnode, altcoins, Binance Launchpad, Stablecoins, CryptoQuant, Changpeng Zhao, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Seasonality, Crypto, Dessislava Aubert, Michael Bloom Organizations: Securities and Exchange Commission, Bitwise Asset Management, SEC, Polygon, CNBC, Binance, BTC Locations: Solana, New York, BUSD's, altcoins, China
Bitcoin is poised to end August on a down beat despite the crypto industry scoring a milestone win on the regulation front. Bitcoin recently jumped 7% after a federal appeals court sided with Grayscale over the Securities and Exchange Commission in a key crypto ETF case. While crypto investors have a lot to cheer, it hasn't been reflected in prices, and bitcoin could remain rangebound throughout September. All eyes on Washington September kicks off with an anticipated update from the SEC on at least one spot bitcoin ETF application. On Thursday afternoon the agency delayed its decisions on bitcoin ETF applications from WisdomTree and Invesco.
Persons: Bitcoin, Rob Ginsberg, Will Tamplin, Tamplin, Cantor Fitzgerald's Elliot Han, Han, Kristin Smith, They're, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Metrics, Securities and Exchange Commission, Wolfe Research, SEC, Fidelity Locations: Washington, Bitwise, BlackRock
One particular area of concern is the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) . The fund is up nearly 47% year to date, thanks in large part to the enormous rally in Nvidia , but is now losing momentum near its all-time high. SMH 5Y mountain The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is trading near its high levels from early 2022. "The semiconductor ETF, SMH, ran into resistance at $160," Roth MKM chief market technician JC O'Hara said in a note to clients. QQQ 5Y mountain The Invesco QQQ Trust is losing momentum near its all-time highs.
Persons: Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, SMH, Roth, JC O'Hara, QQQ Organizations: Wolfe Research, VanEck Semiconductor, Nvidia, Semiconductor, SMH, Nasdaq
Bitcoin tumbled to finish the week after many weeks of stillness in the market, and chart analysts say it's possible this could be just the beginning. Bitcoin also broke its 200-day moving average of $27,300, which could signal an impending downtrend. A range emerges between $25,000 and $30,000 Bitcoin has been here before. The $25,000 level was a key resistance threshold from last summer through March of this year after bitcoin briefly touched $30,000 in its banking crisis-fueled rally. Fairlead Strategies' Katie Stockton puts the next downside target a little higher at $25,200, with a secondary target level of $20,600.
Persons: Bitcoin, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, bitcoin, Julius de Kempenaer, de Kempenaer, Ari Wald, Oppenheimer, Katie Stockton, Stockton Organizations: Elon, SpaceX, CNBC, BlackRock, BTC
"The S & P is not quite there, but we would be very surprised if it doesn't follow the NDX's lead." On top of that, some are worried that another real estate crisis in China may be brewing. "It's been almost two years since China Evergrande Group, once China's largest real estate developer, shocked the financial markets by defaulting on $340 billion in debt. Since then, the Chinese real estate market has been in a serious slump," wrote Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research. Investment in real estate fell 8.5% y/y during the first seven months of this year."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Rubner, 0DTE, Technicals, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, It's, Ed Yardeni, we're, Sarat Sethi, Johnson, Sethi, CNBC's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Nasdaq, China Evergrande Group, Yardeni, Investment, U.S, JPMorgan Locations: China, U.S, Freeport, McMoRan, Haleon
It's going to get worst before it gets better for the price of bitcoin , according to Wolfe Research. Bitcoin has been largely unmoved since July due to market apathy. "The coin has traded within a ~$2,000 range since late June, with $30,000 being the midpoint of said range," Rob Ginsberg, a technical analyst at Wolfe Research said in a note Wednesday. In the past two years, bitcoin has "abruptly expanded" after a tight consolidation more than eight times, he added. "These near-term headwinds are likely to force price lower in BTC and keep volume muted across the space.
Persons: Bitcoin, Rob Ginsberg, bitcoin, Ginsberg, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, BTC
Last week's hiccup in the stock market rally could expand into a seasonal slump, according to Wall Street technical analysts. The S & P 500 fell 2.27% last week for its worst week since March, closing at 4,478.03. Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald said in a note to clients dated Saturday that the market is "developing as a textbook seasonal correction." The S & P 500 is still up more than 16% year to date even after last week's decline. In fact, a 5% pullback from Tuesday's close in the S & P would take you just shy of the August '22 highs," Ginsberg said.
Persons: Oppenheimer, Ari Wald, Wald, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Jonathan Krinsky, SPX, BTIG's Krinsky, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Street, Nasdaq, Investment, Twitter, Wolfe Research
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